A study on evolution and driving forces of carbon dioxide emissions

Abstract

According to theoretical analysis and empirical verification based on IPAT identity, the evolutionary process of carbon dioxide emissions driven by technical advances over time generally follow in sequence three inverted U shape curves in the long run, which are the inverted U shape curve of carbon dioxide emissions intensity, carbon dioxide emissions per capita, and total carbon dioxide emissions respectively. According to three inverted U shape curves, the evolutionary process of carbon dioxide emissions can be divided into four stages, that is: stage before the peak of carbon dioxide emissions intensity, stage between the peak of carbon dioxide emissions intensity and the peak of carbon dioxide emissions per capita, stage between the peak of carbon dioxide emissions per capita and the peak of total carbon emissions, the last stage comes behind total carbon dioxide emissions. Four stages’ driving forces are: carbon-intensive technological advance, economic growth, carbon-reducing technical advances, carbon-reducing technical advances respectively. Finally, our conclusion is: carbon dioxide emissions evolutionary process follows the law of three inverted U shape curves in turn, if we take measures to dealing with climate change, we should not be divorced from the basic development stage.