Abstract:
Given global heterogeneity in climate-induced
agricultural variability, Tanzania has the potential to
substantially increase its maize exports to other countries.
If global maize production is lower than usual due to
supply shocks in major exporting regions, Tanzania
may be able to export more maize at higher prices,
even if it also experiences below-trend productivity.
Diverse destinations for exports can allow for enhanced
trading opportunities when negative supply shocks
affect the partners’ usual import sources. Future climate
predictions suggest that some of Tanzania’s trading
This paper is a product of the Agriculture and Rural Development Team, Development Research Group. It is part of a
larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy
discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.
org. The authors may be contacted at sahmed20@worldbank.org, diffenbaugh@stanford.edu, hertel@purdue.edu, and
wmartin1@worldbank.org.
partners will experience severe dry conditions that may
reduce agricultural production in years when Tanzania
is only mildly affected. Tanzania could thus export grain
to countries as climate change increases the likelihood
of severe precipitation deficits in other countries while
simultaneously decreasing the likelihood of severe
precipitation deficits in Tanzania. Trade restrictions, like
export bans, prevent Tanzania from taking advantage
of these opportunities, foregoing significant economic
benefits.
